Howdy Education Insights
Published research and briefings from Howdy Education Insights, organized around international student mobility and North American admissions.
Published analysis
18Between 2019/20 and 2023/24, undergraduate decline accounted arithmetically for 80.9% of the combined U.S. undergraduate-and-graduate decrease. In Canada, the decline in bachelor’s registrations exceeded the final net decrease because growth in master’s and doctoral registrations offset part of it.
Graduate share increased in both national series, but the underlying arithmetic differed. U.S. graduate headcount fell while the broader Open Doors total fell faster. Canadian master’s and doctoral registrations increased while the broader registration total declined.
From 2019/20 to 2023/24, U.S. China-origin undergraduate headcount fell 40.9% and Canadian bachelor’s registrations fell 28.2% within their respective systems. A separate Common App series remained 4.7% above its first of three seasons despite a 1.9% latest-year decline.
Open Doors shows where the measured decline was concentrated. Separate F-1, SEVIS and K-12 series show that later increases were uneven and are not interchangeable measures of recovery.
India’s 2024/25 Open Doors total exceeded China’s by 97,100. The gap reflected India’s larger graduate and especially OPT populations, partly offset by China’s larger undergraduate and non-degree populations. India’s latest annual increase also coincided with a substantial OPT increase while its graduate count declined.
Graduate students and OPT participants increased from 55.0% to 68.5% of the China-origin Open Doors total between 2018/19 and 2024/25. Their combined count nevertheless fell by 21,223. The apparent contrast is a denominator effect: undergraduate and non-degree populations contracted more sharply.
A J-1 investigation involving nine U.S. universities puts Chinese research mobility under scrutiny; findings remain unresolved.
Chinese first-year applicants remain below their peak, though their recent Common App trend is relatively stronger.
The non-China remainder declined by 2,877, or 6.7%.
Between 2019/20 and 2023/24, postsecondary program registrations among international students with Chinese citizenship fell by 23,778. Bachelor’s or equivalent registrations accounted arithmetically for 74.0% of the net decline. Master’s and doctoral registrations increased, offsetting 6.9% of the undergraduate decline. STEM registrations also fell, even though STEM’s share increased because BHASE registrations contracted more sharply.
Stable enrolment totals can conceal lost international tuition revenue and financial pressure at some Canadian colleges.
More than half the provincial application-processing spaces went unused, while individual universities faced PAL shortages.
Canada’s year-end study-permit-holder population increased from 352,290 in 2015 to 996,375 in 2024. Over the same period, the China component fell from 117,825 to 99,650. The non-China component increased by 662,260—arithmetically equal to 102.8% of the total net increase because the China component moved in the opposite direction.
A record international student total masked nearly flat academic enrollment, rising OPT participation and diverging degree trends.
The nine field categories published in Open Doors 2025 reconcile exactly to the total increase of 51,076. Math and computer science added 24,455, while fine and applied arts declined by 4,617. Growth was concentrated, but it was not uniform across fields.
The Chinese–Indian public–private gap may reflect degree profiles, STEM career pathways and the scale of U.S. public universities.
Undergraduate scholarships, master’s tuition models and doctoral research funding serve different institutional purposes.
Two public universities saw divergent Chinese enrollment trends; their existing student mix helps put the contrast in context.
