Core Findings
- The Open Doors total, including enrolled students and Optional Practical Training participants, fell from 372,532 in 2019/20 to 265,919 in 2024/25—a decline of 106,613, or 28.6%.
- Undergraduate decline accounted arithmetically for 65.3% of that decrease. Graduate, non-degree and OPT declines accounted for the remaining 34.7%.
- Of the full peak-to-2024/25 decline, 77.3% had occurred by 2021/22. The total then declined by another 24,167 rather than returning to growth.
- From 2022 to 2024, the increase equaled 47.3% of the earlier measured F-1 decline, 3.6% for active F/M records and 3.3% for K–12 records.
- These percentages are separate within-series comparisons. They cannot be combined into a single recovery measure or treated as conversion rates.
What Each Measure Observes
Open Doors reports China-origin undergraduate, graduate and non-degree students plus people participating in Optional Practical Training, or OPT, across an academic year. OPT participants remain in the Open Doors total but are not a currently enrolled academic level.
Department of State data count F-1 visa issuances during a federal fiscal year. SEVIS data describe active F- or M-status administrative records; those records do not necessarily represent unique people. K–12 SEVIS records cover a narrower education segment.
| Source | Time basis | Population and unit | Latest observation used |
|---|---|---|---|
| IIE Open Doors | Academic year | China-origin enrolled students and OPT participants | 265,919 in 2024/25 |
| U.S. Department of State | Federal fiscal year | F-1 visa issuances to mainland-China nationals | 82,654 in FY2024 |
| ICE/SEVP SEVIS | Observation date or period defined by the cited report | Active F/M administrative records associated with China citizens; not necessarily unique people | 329,541 in the 2024 report |
| ICE/SEVP K–12 | Observation date or period defined by the cited report | Active Chinese K–12 F/M records | 14,515 in the 2024 report |
The measures overlap only partly in time and population. Visa issuance does not establish arrival or enrollment, and the datasets cannot be linked person by person to calculate cross-system conversion rates.
Eight Years of Open Doors History
| Academic year | China-origin Open Doors total, including OPT | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | 363,341 | — |
| 2018/19 | 369,548 | +1.7% |
| 2019/20 | 372,532 | +0.8% |
| 2020/21 | 317,299 | −14.8% |
| 2021/22 | 290,086 | −8.6% |
| 2022/23 | 289,526 | −0.2% |
| 2023/24 | 277,398 | −4.2% |
| 2024/25 | 265,919 | −4.1% |
Source: IIE Open Doors. Period labels are descriptive, not causal. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
The series can be divided into three neutral periods. From 2017/18 to 2019/20, the published total increased gradually from 363,341 to its eight-year peak of 372,532.
The largest contraction occurred between 2019/20 and 2021/22. The total fell by 82,446 during that interval, equal to 77.3% of the complete 106,613 decline from the peak to 2024/25.
From 2021/22 to 2024/25, the total remained at a lower level and declined by another 24,167. That residual decrease represented 22.7% of the complete peak-to-2024/25 decline. Most of the contraction had therefore occurred by 2021/22, but the series did not return to growth afterward.
Open Doors temporarily included some students studying online from outside the United States in its 2021 through 2023 reporting and subsequently returned to its earlier definition. The three periods describe the published series; they are not estimates of a single causal process.
Which Categories Accounted for the Decline?
Total: −106,613 (100.0%)
Source: IIE Open Doors. Contributions are arithmetic, not causal explanations. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
| Category | 2019/20 | 2024/25 | Decline | Share of total decline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Undergraduate | 148,160 | 78,583 | −69,577 | 65.3% |
| Graduate | 137,096 | 120,229 | −16,867 | 15.8% |
| Non-degree | 15,896 | 5,126 | −10,770 | 10.1% |
| OPT | 71,380 | 61,981 | −9,399 | 8.8% |
| Total | 372,532 | 265,919 | −106,613 | 100.0% |
Undergraduate decline was the dominant arithmetic component, but every category contributed to the lower total. This decomposition does not identify why any population changed.
Post-2022 Movement Was Uneven
F-1 issuances
Earlier decline 43,881; later increase 20,760
47.3% of earlier measured declineWithin-series comparison onlyActive F/M records
Earlier decline 150,301; later increase 5,345
3.6% of earlier measured declineWithin-series comparison onlyK–12 records
Earlier decline 28,557; later increase 950
3.3% of earlier measured declineWithin-series comparison onlySource: U.S. Department of State and ICE/SEVP. Populations, baseline years, units and stages differ; the panels are not a common index. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
F-1 issuances fell from 105,775 in FY2019 to 61,894 in FY2022, a decrease of 43,881. The increase to 82,654 in FY2024 was 20,760, equal to 47.3% of that earlier measured decline.
Active F/M SEVIS records fell from 474,497 in the 2019 series to 324,196 in 2022, a decrease of 150,301. The increase to 329,541 in 2024 was 5,345, equal to 3.6% of the earlier decline.
K–12 records fell from 42,122 in the 2018 series to 13,565 in 2022, a decrease of 28,557. The increase to 14,515 in 2024 was 950, equal to 3.3% of the earlier decline.
The difference between 47.3%, 3.6% and 3.3% does not describe three stages of one cohort. It shows that separate administrative and education indicators moved differently within their own definitions.
What Institutions Should Compare
A national movement becomes locally relevant only after an institution identifies which part of its own China pipeline changed. A change in visa issuance, active records or the Open Doors population cannot by itself locate a change in applications, offers, deposits, arrivals or enrollment.
For the institution-level method, see Diagnosing Changes in China Recruitment: From National Signals to Institutional Evidence.
Sources
| Source | Purpose | Type |
|---|---|---|
| IIE Open Doors 2025 China Country and Area Fact Sheet | China totals and academic-level categories | DATA |
| Open Doors International Student Census methodology | Population and reporting framework | METHOD |
| Open Doors definitions of international students and OPT inclusion | Boundary between enrolled academic levels and OPT | DEFINITION |
| U.S. Department of State Nonimmigrant Visa Statistics | F-1 issuance series | DATA |
| U.S. Department of State, Visa Counts and Methodology Differences | Visa-series counting boundary | METHOD |
| ICE/SEVP, 2024 SEVIS by the Numbers | Active F/M and K–12 records | DATA / DEFINITION |