Core Findings
- The combined U.S. undergraduate and graduate population fell from 285,256 to 210,329, a decrease of 74,927.
- Undergraduate decline accounted arithmetically for 60,609, or 80.9%, of that decrease.
- Canadian bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral registrations fell from a combined 75,456 to 59,085, a net decrease of 16,371.
- Bachelor’s registrations declined by 17,589—107.4% of the final net decrease—because master’s and doctoral registrations increased by 1,218.
- Undergraduate contraction dominated both series, but U.S. graduate headcount also declined while Canadian graduate-level registrations increased.
Separate Statistical Systems
The comparison uses the same 2019/20–2023/24 academic window, but the underlying units remain different. Open Doors reports China-origin students at U.S. higher education institutions across an academic year. Statistics Canada reports fall-snapshot program registrations among international students with Chinese citizenship.
Canadian registrations are randomly rounded to multiples of three, and one person may appear in more than one program. The two national counts must therefore remain separate. The comparison concerns change within each system, not a combined North American population or movement of students between countries.
| Series | 2019/20 | 2023/24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. undergraduate | 148,160 | 87,551 | −60,609 |
| U.S. graduate | 137,096 | 122,778 | −14,318 |
| U.S. undergraduate + graduate | 285,256 | 210,329 | −74,927 |
| Canada bachelor’s or equivalent | 62,298 | 44,709 | −17,589 |
| Canada master’s + doctoral | 13,158 | 14,376 | +1,218 |
| Canada bachelor’s + master’s + doctoral | 75,456 | 59,085 | −16,371 |
The U.S. Decline Was Predominantly Undergraduate
Contributions are calculated within the U.S. Open Doors series. They locate the arithmetic change but do not explain its causes.
Undergraduate headcount fell by 60,609, while graduate headcount fell by 14,318. Together they produced a net decrease of 74,927:
−60,609 − 14,318 = −74,927.
The undergraduate component represented 80.9% of the combined decrease. Graduate decline represented the remaining 19.1%.
Canada Had a Graduate-Level Offset
The Canadian panel uses program registrations and its own scale. It should not be compared with U.S. absolute counts.
Bachelor’s registrations fell by 17,589. Master’s and doctoral registrations increased by a combined 1,218, reducing the final net decrease to 16,371:
−17,589 + 1,218 = −16,371.
The bachelor’s decline was therefore 107.4% of the final net decrease. A contribution above 100% is valid here because another component moved in the opposite direction. Graduate-level growth offset 6.9% of the bachelor’s decline.
Similar Dominant Category, Different Arithmetic
United States: student headcount
Net change: −74,927
−60,609 − 14,318 = −74,927
Canada: program registrations
Net change: −16,371
−17,589 + 1,218 = −16,371
Source: IIE Open Doors and Statistics Canada. Panels use separate units and scales; absolute sizes are not compared. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
Undergraduate contraction dominated both national series. The difference lies below that shared headline: U.S. graduate headcount declined, whereas Canadian master’s and doctoral registrations increased. A similar net direction can therefore contain different level-specific movements.
For the related composition question—why graduate share rose in both countries—see “Graduate Share Rose in Both the U.S. and Canada—With Different Count Movements.”
Sources
| Source | Purpose | Type |
|---|---|---|
| IIE Open Doors, Academic Level and Places of Origin | U.S. undergraduate and graduate counts | DATA |
| Open Doors International Student Census methodology | U.S. population and reporting definition | METHOD / DEFINITION |
| Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0184-01 | Canadian bachelor's, master's and doctoral registrations | DATA |
| Statistics Canada 2023/24 release and methodology | Registration unit, fall snapshot and rounding | METHOD / DEFINITION |