Chinese Student Mobility to North America After 2020: Diverging Paths in the U.S. and Canada

A Common Window, Separate Populations

The clearest North American comparison starts with the same academic years. This article uses 2019/20 as the pre-pandemic baseline and 2023/24 as the latest shared endpoint in the Open Doors and Statistics Canada series held in Howdy's panel. Later U.S. enrollment and Canadian permit observations are reported separately.

IIE Open Doors

China-origin students at U.S. higher education institutions, reported over an academic year. The undergraduate category is broader than bachelor's study; the graduate category combines master's and doctoral study. The headline total includes OPT participants, but the undergraduate and graduate series used here exclude OPT.

Statistics Canada

Fall-snapshot program enrolments at public colleges and universities among international students with Chinese citizenship. Bachelor's, master's and doctoral or equivalent levels are reported separately. A person enrolled in multiple programs can be counted more than once; published counts are randomly rounded to a multiple of three.

U.S. Department of State

F-1 visa issuances for China-mainland nationality, by fiscal year (October through September). Issuances are not unique students, arrivals or enrollment.

ICE/SEVP

Active F/M SEVIS records for Chinese citizens during a calendar year, across education levels. A person can have more than one record; this is not a year-end stock.

IRCC

Chinese citizens holding study permits, either with permits becoming effective during a calendar year or with valid permits on December 31. The first measure includes people already in Canada; it is not a count of new arrivals. Counts are rounded to the nearest five and remain subject to revision.

Percentage changes are calculated within each series as (end / start − 1) × 100. Matching the academic window does not harmonize degree categories or convert Canadian program enrolments into U.S. student counts. Pandemic-era Open Doors reporting also included eligible students studying online from outside the United States; the series should not be read as physical presence alone. Research Standards

Undergraduate Contraction, Graduate Divergence

Graduate-level results differed. The U.S. count fell from 137,096 to 122,778. In Canada, master's enrolments increased from 9,681 to 10,236, and doctoral enrolments from 3,477 to 4,140. Canadian graduate growth therefore coexisted with a substantially smaller bachelor's population.

View the chart data and statistical units

U.S.: China-origin students. Canada: program enrolments among international students with Chinese citizenship, not unique persons. All changes use the same academic endpoints, within each source.

Series	2019/20	2023/24	Change
U.S. undergraduateIIE Open Doors	148,160	87,551	−40.9%
U.S. graduateIIE Open Doors	137,096	122,778	−10.4%
Canada bachelor's or equivalentStatistics Canada	62,298	44,709	−28.2%
Canada master's or equivalentStatistics Canada	9,681	10,236	+5.7%
Canada doctoral or equivalentStatistics Canada	3,477	4,140	+19.1%

Visa and Permit Activity Followed Different Paths

The 2022–2024 administrative records add a different perspective. U.S. F-1 issuances increased 33.5%, while active F/M SEVIS records rose 1.6%. In Canada, the number of Chinese permit holders with permits becoming effective during the year rose 8.8%, while the December 31 population rose 0.4%.

Source: U.S. Department of State, FY2022 and FY2024 NIV detail tables; ICE/SEVP, 2022 and 2024 annual reports; IRCC, citizenship tables for effective-year and December 31 permit holders. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.

The larger increases in visa issuance and effective-year permit activity did not coincide with similarly sized increases in the other two measures. These are not matched cohorts, so the figures cannot yield an arrival rate, enrollment conversion rate or ranking of national recovery speeds. An institution assessing conversion needs its own applicant, visa or permit, and arrival records.

Later Observations Have Different End Dates

In the U.S. series, 2024/25 undergraduate enrollment fell further to 78,583 and graduate enrollment to 120,229. Against 2019/20, those changes were −47.0% and −12.3%.

IRCC's effective-year measure fell to 48,755 Chinese permit holders in 2025, 13.1% below 2024. That later permit decline cannot be used to update Canada's 2023/24 degree-level enrolment counts. Statistics Canada notes that the 2023/24 observations predate the recent federal permit restrictions.

These later releases extend the national accounts at different stages. They do not provide a synchronized picture of North American enrollment in 2025 or a forecast for the next intake.

What This Changes for Recruitment Planning

The North American finding is degree-level divergence within two different national trajectories. Both undergraduate-related measures contracted; graduate results split by country. That is a useful basis for segment research, without treating national administrative activity as proof of program-level demand.