Core Finding
The total number of people holding a valid study permit on December 31 increased by 644,085 between 2015 and 2024.
China declined by 18,175, while the non-China component increased from 234,465 to 896,725. Growth outside China therefore exceeded the total net increase because the China decline offset part of that growth.
Decomposing the Net Increase
| Component | 2015 | 2024 | Change | Arithmetic contribution to total net increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 117,825 | 99,650 | −18,175 | −2.8% |
| Non-China | 234,465 | 896,725 | +662,260 | 102.8% |
| Total | 352,290 | 996,375 | +644,085 | 100.0% |
The reconciliation is:
+662,260 − 18,175 = +644,085
The non-China arithmetic contribution is:
662,260 ÷ 644,085 = 102.8%
The figure exceeds 100% because one component increased while the other declined. It does not establish that other origin countries replaced China or caused the China decline.
Observation Basis
The figures count people holding a valid study permit on December 31. This is a year-end administrative population, not annual permit issuances, new arrivals or postsecondary enrollment.
The decomposition describes how the China and non-China components combine arithmetically. It does not identify the causes of either movement.
Analytical Implication
Canada’s total year-end permit-holder growth cannot be used as a proxy for the China-origin trend. The aggregate and the China component moved in opposite directions over this period.
Sources
| Source | Purpose | Type |
|---|---|---|
| IRCC: Temporary Residents—Study Permit Holders Open Data | Dataset scope and release context | METHOD |
| IRCC: Study Permit Holders with a Valid Permit on December 31 by Country of Citizenship | 2015 and 2024 total and citizenship values | DATA |