How Graduate and OPT Shares Rose While Their Counts Fell

Core Findings

The China-origin Open Doors total fell by 103,629 between 2018/19 and 2024/25.
Undergraduate decline accounted arithmetically for 67.8% of the total decrease.
Graduate students and OPT participants together fell from 203,433 to 182,210, a decline of 21,223 or 10.4%.
Their combined share nevertheless rose from 55.0% to 68.5%, an increase of 13.5 percentage points.
Graduate counts exceeded undergraduate counts by 2021/22 because undergraduate numbers had contracted more sharply; the crossover does not indicate graduate growth.

The Composition Being Measured

Open Doors divides the China-origin total into undergraduate, graduate, non-degree and Optional Practical Training, or OPT, categories. OPT is post-completion practical training and is included in the total, but it is not a currently enrolled academic level.

China-Origin Composition at Three Checkpoints
Academic year	Undergraduate	Graduate	Non-degree	OPT	Graduate + OPT	Graduate + OPT share
2018/19	148,880	133,396	17,235	70,037	203,433	55.0%
2021/22Crossover	109,492	123,182	6,213	51,199	174,381	60.1%
2024/25	78,583	120,229	5,126	61,981	182,210	68.5%

In 2018/19, undergraduates exceeded graduate students by 15,484. By 2021/22, graduate students exceeded undergraduates by 13,690. The gap widened to 41,646 by 2024/25.

Which Categories Accounted for the Decline?

Undergraduate Decline Accounted for 67.8% of the 2018/19–2024/25 DecreaseContributions divide each category’s decline by the total decline of 103,629. They identify the arithmetic location of the decrease, not its cause.

Undergraduate

67.8%−70,297

Graduate

12.7%−13,167

Non-degree

11.7%−12,109

OPT

7.8%−8,056

Total: −103,629 (100.0%)

Source: IIE Open Doors. Contributions are arithmetic, not causal explanations. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.

Category	2018/19	2024/25	Decline	Share of total decline
Undergraduate	148,880	78,583	−70,297	67.8%
Graduate	133,396	120,229	−13,167	12.7%
Non-degree	17,235	5,126	−12,109	11.7%
OPT	70,037	61,981	−8,056	7.8%
Total	369,548	265,919	−103,629	100.0%

All four categories were smaller in 2024/25 than in 2018/19. The mix changed because the size of their declines differed, not because graduate and OPT populations both expanded.

Share Rose While Count Fell

Graduate + OPT: Lower Count, Larger ShareThe left panel compares people; the right panel compares percentage share of the same annual Open Doors total. Separate panels avoid implying that counts and percentages use one axis.

Over the same period, undergraduate + non-degree declined 49.6%.

Source: IIE Open Doors. Count and share are shown separately; a larger share does not imply absolute growth. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.

Measure	2018/19	2024/25	Change
Graduate + OPT count	203,433	182,210	−21,223 / −10.4%
Graduate + OPT share	55.0%	68.5%	+13.5 percentage points

The combined graduate and OPT count declined by 10.4%, while the undergraduate and non-degree total fell from 166,115 to 83,709—a decrease of 82,406, or 49.6%.

Because the remainder of the denominator contracted much faster, graduate and OPT represented a larger share of a smaller total. This is a mathematical composition effect, not evidence that graduate or OPT demand grew.

Implication for Institutions

Share growth does not necessarily mean absolute market growth. Institutions planning by academic level should track both counts and shares because a category can gain weight within the total while serving fewer people.

Sources

Source	Purpose	Type
Open Doors 2019 China Fact Sheet	2018/19 category counts	DATA
Open Doors 2022 China Fact Sheet	2021/22 category counts and crossover	DATA
Open Doors 2025 China Fact Sheet	2024/25 category counts	DATA
Open Doors International Student Census methodology	Population and category definitions	METHOD / DEFINITION

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