Core Finding
Total program registrations fell from 90,384 in 2019/20 to 66,606 in 2023/24. The decline was concentrated in bachelor’s or equivalent programs, which fell by 17,589.
Master’s registrations increased by 555 and doctoral registrations by 663. Their combined increase of 1,218 offset part of the undergraduate decline but was not large enough to reverse the overall contraction.
Which Study Levels Accounted for the Decline?
−17,589 − 7,407 + 1,218 = −23,778
Source: Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0184-01; Howdy calculations. Program registrations are not necessarily unique people; published counts are randomly rounded to multiples of three. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
| Study level | 2019/20 | 2023/24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor’s or equivalent | 62,298 | 44,709 | −17,589 |
| Master’s or equivalent | 9,681 | 10,236 | +555 |
| Doctoral or equivalent | 3,477 | 4,140 | +663 |
| Other credential categories, arithmetic remainder | 14,928 | 7,521 | −7,407 |
| Total program registrations | 90,384 | 66,606 | −23,778 |
The undergraduate contribution was:
17,589 ÷ 23,778 = 74.0%
Master’s and doctoral registrations together increased from 13,158 to 14,376. Relative to the undergraduate decline, their offset was:
1,218 ÷ 17,589 = 6.9%
These are arithmetic relationships among registration changes, not explanations for why the changes occurred.
STEM Share Rose While STEM Registrations Fell
Statistics Canada divides classified fields into STEM and BHASE—business, humanities, health, arts, social science and education.
A. Registration counts
B. Classified registration share
STEM share +3.2pp; its count still fell by 6,717.
Source: Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0184-01; Howdy calculations. BHASE covers non-STEM fields in business, humanities, health, arts, social science and education. A rising share does not mean STEM registrations grew. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
| Broad field group | 2019/20 registrations | 2023/24 registrations | Change | Share of STEM/BHASE-classified registrations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEM | 33,780 | 27,063 | −6,717 | 37.703% → 40.919% |
| BHASE | 55,815 | 39,075 | −16,740 | 62.297% → 59.081% |
STEM registrations declined by 19.9%, but BHASE registrations declined by 30.0%. Because BHASE contracted more sharply, STEM’s share of registrations classified within the two broad groups rose by 3.216 percentage points, reported in the article as approximately 3.2 percentage points.
The larger share does not establish STEM growth or a shift by Chinese students into STEM. It reflects different rates of decline in the two broad field groups.
Observation Basis
Statistics Canada reports program registrations at an institution-selected fall snapshot. Registrations are not necessarily unique people: one person may be counted in more than one program. Published counts are randomly rounded to multiples of three.
The STEM and BHASE shares use only registrations classified within those two broad groups as their denominator.
Direct Institutional Implication
Institutions comparing China-origin registration patterns by field should examine both registration counts and composition shares. A rising share can coexist with a falling count.
Sources
| Source | Purpose | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0184-01: Postsecondary enrolments by citizenship, level of study and field | Program-registration counts by level and field | DATA |
| Statistics Canada: Canadian postsecondary enrolments and graduates, 2023/2024 | Release context and observation basis | METHOD |