Core Findings
- U.S. undergraduate headcount fell from 148,160 to 87,551, a decline of 60,609 or 40.9%.
- Canadian bachelor’s or equivalent registrations fell from 62,298 to 44,709, a decline of 17,589 or 28.2%.
- Common App’s China-citizenship first-year applicant series moved from 17,611 to 18,792 and then 18,435.
- The latest Common App count was 1.9% below the preceding season but 4.7% above the first season.
- The population series and applicant series observe different stages and cannot be combined into a conversion rate.
Three Measures, Two Stages
Open Doors reports China-origin undergraduate students at U.S. higher education institutions. Statistics Canada reports fall-snapshot bachelor’s or equivalent program registrations among international students with Chinese citizenship.
Common App reports distinct first-year applicants who submitted at least one application through the platform. In the country series, the China category covers applicants whose only valid citizenship is China. The participating-institution universe can change between seasons, and it is not the complete U.S. undergraduate applicant market.
| Measure | Population and unit | Sequence | Within-series change |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. undergraduate | Open Doors China-origin undergraduate students | 148,160 → 87,551 | −60,609 / −40.9% |
| Canada bachelor’s or equivalent | Chinese-citizenship fall-snapshot program registrations | 62,298 → 44,709 | −17,589 / −28.2% |
| Common App first-year applicants | Distinct applicants whose only valid citizenship is China | 17,611 → 18,792 → 18,435 | Net +824 / +4.7%; latest −357 / −1.9% |
Undergraduate Populations Declined in Both Systems
U.S. undergraduate headcount
Canada bachelor's registrations
Source: IIE Open Doors and Statistics Canada. Each series is indexed to its own 2019/20 value; absolute units remain separate. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
By 2023/24, the U.S. undergraduate series stood 40.9% below its 2019/20 baseline. The Canadian bachelor’s-registration series stood 28.2% below its own baseline.
The comparison does not show that one country lost more students in absolute terms, and it does not identify movement between destinations.
The Common App Signal Observes an Earlier Stage
Source: Common App end-of-season reports, 2023/24–2025/26. Distinct first-year applicants, not applications or enrollment. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
The count increased from 17,611 in 2023/24 to 18,792 in 2024/25, an increase of 6.7%. It then declined to 18,435 in 2025/26, a decrease of 1.9%. Across the three seasons, the net change was +824, or +4.7%.
This supporting signal does not show that undergraduate enrollment recovered. It shows that a sharp multi-year decline in realized undergraduate populations can coexist with a recent platform-applicant series that remains modestly above its earlier level.
For the full application-stage analysis, see “China-Citizenship First-Year Applicants on Common App: Rise, Partial Decline, Net Gain.”
Sources
| Source | Purpose | Type |
|---|---|---|
| IIE Open Doors, Academic Level and Places of Origin | U.S. undergraduate population | DATA |
| Open Doors International Student Census methodology | U.S. population definition | METHOD / DEFINITION |
| Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0184-01 | Canadian bachelor's registrations | DATA |
| Statistics Canada 2023/24 release and methodology | Registration unit and rounding | METHOD / DEFINITION |
| Common App end-of-season reports, 2023/24–2025/26 | Three-season applicant counts and citizenship classification | DATA / DEFINITION |
- IIE Open Doors, Academic Level and Places of Origin
- Open Doors International Student Census methodology
- Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0184-01
- Statistics Canada 2023/24 release and methodology
- Common App 2023/24 End-of-Season Report
- Common App 2024/25 End-of-Season Report
- Common App 2025/26 End-of-Season Report