Core Finding
International K–12 active F/M records declined by 30,484 between 2018 and 2024, a reduction of 35.9%. China records fell from 42,122 to 14,515, a decline of 27,607 or 65.5%.
Subtracting China from the international total produces a different pattern for the rest of the population. Non-China records moved from 42,718 to 39,841, a decline of 2,877 or 6.7%.
The Two Components Moved Differently
A. Record endpoints in 2018 and 2024
Active F/M SEVIS records
B. Share of total decline
Total decline: −30,484 records
Source: SEVP, SEVIS by the Numbers 2018 and 2024; non-China values and contribution shares calculated by Howdy. Records are not necessarily unique students; the contribution is arithmetic and does not establish cause or substitution. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.
| Component | 2018 active records | 2024 active records | Absolute change | Percentage change | Share of total decline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 42,122 | 14,515 | −27,607 | −65.5% | 90.6% |
| Non-China | 42,718 | 39,841 | −2,877 | −6.7% | 9.4% |
| All international K–12 | 84,840 | 54,356 | −30,484 | −35.9% | 100.0% |
The China and non-China components were almost equal in 2018. By 2024, China represented a much smaller part of the total because its record count had fallen far more sharply.
Where the Total Decline Came From
The contribution calculation is:
27,607 ÷ 30,484 = 90.6%
This means that 90.6% of the recorded decline was in the China component. It is an arithmetic decomposition, not a finding that China caused the broader decline. The smaller contraction outside China also does not establish that other origin markets replaced China.
Observation Basis
The 2018 and 2024 SEVP reports use sufficiently comparable calendar-year active F/M SEVIS-record concepts for this endpoint calculation. These are administrative records associated with K–12 education and are not necessarily counts of unique students.
Article-Specific Implication
A school or sector interpreting the national international K–12 decline should separate the China component from the rest of the population. The aggregate decrease was heavily concentrated in one origin group, while the non-China record base declined much less.
Sources
| Source | Purpose | Type |
|---|---|---|
| SEVP, SEVIS by the Numbers 2018 | 2018 China and all-international K–12 active-record endpoints and observation basis | DATA |
| SEVP, SEVIS by the Numbers 2024 | 2024 endpoints and comparable calendar-year active-record basis | DATA |