Core Findings

  • U.S. graduate headcount fell from 137,096 to 120,229, a decrease of 16,867 or 12.3%.
  • Its share of the China-origin Open Doors total rose from 36.8% to 45.2%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points.
  • Canadian master’s and doctoral registrations increased from 13,158 to 14,376, a gain of 1,218 or 9.3%.
  • Their share of Chinese-citizenship postsecondary registrations rose from 14.6% to 21.6%, an increase of 7.0 percentage points.
  • Graduate shares rose in both series, but the U.S. headcount fell while Canadian program registrations increased.

What the Shares Measure

The U.S. numerator is Open Doors graduate headcount. Its denominator is the full China-origin Open Doors total, including undergraduate, graduate and non-degree students plus OPT participants.

The Canadian numerator combines master’s and doctoral program registrations. Its denominator is all Chinese-citizenship postsecondary program registrations in the Statistics Canada table.

These shares are valid within their respective systems, but their populations and units are not identical. The useful comparison is the mechanism of change, not the absolute share level.

SeriesGraduate measureAbsolute changeShare change
U.S. Open Doors137,096 → 120,229−16,867 / −12.3%36.8% → 45.2% / +8.4pp
Canada registrations13,158 → 14,376+1,218 / +9.3%14.6% → 21.6% / +7.0pp

United States: Count Down, Share Up

The full China-origin Open Doors total fell from 372,532 in 2019/20 to 265,919 in 2024/25, a decrease of 28.6%. Graduate headcount declined by 12.3% over the same period.

Because the denominator contracted more sharply than the graduate numerator, graduate share rose by 8.4 percentage points. The larger share is a composition effect; it does not indicate graduate headcount growth.

Canada: Count Up, Share Up

Canadian master’s and doctoral registrations increased by 1,218 between 2019/20 and 2023/24. Over the same interval, the broader Chinese-citizenship postsecondary registration total fell from 90,384 to 66,606.

The graduate numerator therefore increased while the denominator declined. Both movements raised the graduate share, which increased by 7.0 percentage points.

Same Share Direction, Different Arithmetic

Graduate Share Rose in Both Series, but Graduate Counts Moved in Opposite DirectionsCount changes and share changes appear in separate panels. U.S. student headcount and Canadian program registrations remain different units.

Graduate count change (%)

United States
−12.3%
Canada
+9.3%

Graduate share change (pp)

United States
+8.4pp
Canada
+7.0pp
U.S.: count down, share upCanada: registrations up, share up

Source: IIE Open Doors and Statistics Canada. Count change and percentage-point change are separate; no migration or substitution inference is made. Analysis: Howdy Education Insights.

In the U.S., graduate share rose despite graduate decline. In Canada, graduate share rose alongside graduate-registration growth. Neither pattern establishes movement of students between the two countries.

Sources

SourcePurposeType
Open Doors 2020 report and China data2019/20 graduate count and totalDATA
Open Doors 2025 China Fact Sheet2024/25 graduate count and totalDATA
Open Doors International Student Census methodologyPopulation and OPT boundaryMETHOD / DEFINITION
Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0184-01Canadian graduate and total registrationsDATA
Statistics Canada 2023/24 release and methodologyRegistration unit and statistical treatmentMETHOD / DEFINITION
  1. Open Doors 2020 report and China data
  2. Open Doors 2025 China Fact Sheet
  3. Open Doors International Student Census methodology
  4. Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0184-01
  5. Statistics Canada 2023/24 release and methodology
← Back to Data Insights